"Beware Benidorm"

Most tourists are initially blown away by Dubai and the veneer of glitz and opulence that "seven star" hotels, extensive service (cheap third world labour) and various world-first-megaprojects are able to supply. But The Economist has a warning for developing countries hoping to grab the tourism dollar. They note the example of Spain, which ravaged much of its beautiful Mediterranean coastline into a concrete hell:

"The question planners in these new markets should ask themselves is where they want tourism in their country to be in 20 years. At the moment tourists from emerging markets have their own tastes. Russians like two weeks on a sunny beach, wild parties and lots of retail therapy. The Chinese prefer urban travel to sea and sand. People from the Gulf states travel in big families and require halal food. Yet, with the progress of economic prosperity they will probably become more like Europeans and Americans, who want scenery, a decent environment and a smattering of history and culture. If you destroy your heritage and scenery, you will come to regret it."

The issue with a tourism-based economy is that it depends on mass tourism, and critically, repeat mass tourism. So who is likely to come to Dubai, and who is likely to keep coming? As a speculation:

Annual visitors: regional Arabs, property owners, families of expats, European "Benidorm" demographic

One-off/occasionals: wealthy subcons, friends of expats, more discerning Europeans, rich Chinese, rich Africans, Russians

Won't come: poorer subcons (ie the vast majority), poorer Chinese (ditto), poorer Africans (ditto), Americans, Israelis

As well as this, Dubai faces several major tests:

1. Ramadan 2008+
From this year, Ramadan starts to coincide with European school holidays. That means a massive overhaul of food-in-public laws are needed. No way will places like Dubailand be able to ban food from dawn till dusk; it seems increasingly unlikely that popular tourist-frequented malls such as Mall of the Emirates will either. And curtained cafes won't suffice: children will need to be able to walk around eating ice creams in broad daylight if they so wish. And booze will need to be on sale at every hotel all day long. If you want the mass tourism dollar, this is how you must prostitute your culture. Mass tourists smoke, drink, shag and often behave offensively. You can't expect them to behave like a coach load of trappist nuns if you want their money.

2. Rising costs
Soaring food and oil costs are hurting people worldwide. Dubai is a long haul destination for pretty much everyone: it is always going to be more expensive to sun-sand-sea in the UAE than in Spain if you're European, Goa if you're Indian, the Gold Coast if you're Australian, and so on. With so many destinations all over the world, cost will start to become a more critical factor than convenience and familiarity.

3. Competition
Specifically regional competition. What you get in Dubai is pretty much identical to what you get in Doha or Abu Dhabi: the same "seven star" hotels, the same perma-sunny weather, the same "tax free" shopping, the same mega malls and world-first developments. Dubai currently has an edge, but this may not always be the case.


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