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15 March, 2006

And we all come tumbling down

The financial losses suffered by investors in tumbling regional stockmarkets is likely to have repercussions far beyond a few now-empty dishdash pockets.

First: thousands of often inexperienced, first-time local investors have taken out huge, unsecured bank loans to speculate in the markets. Most will now presumably default on these loans.

Secondly: GCC nationals aren't used to losing money. They're used to the government bailing them out if they don't have enough money or don't save any money. They're used to the courts bailing them out with favourable verdicts if they can't pay their bank loans, or if they have a dispute with their foreign partner. They're not used to having access to things like gambling, since that's banned in most Islamic countries. Hence the fever - to the point of violent stampedes - that broke out over many recent IPOs, with the markets effectively becoming a legitimised casino.

What will the outcome be? Disillusionment, resentment, shame, anger. Hospitals in Saudi are already treating hordes of hysterical, distressed investors. Saudi's shoura council wants the government to intervene to prevent a crash: it won't. Kuwaiti investors are demanding their government bail out the bourse: it's refusing. Even independent analysts are recommending an emergency freeze on all IPOs. Increasing fury and bitterness against governments seem likely; all the more dangerous in a region with no real popular enfranchisement.

Either way, futures in worry-beads seem an extremely safe punt right now.

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17 Comments:

Blogger Hot Lemon& Honey said...

Everybody knows that the stockmarket in the UAE is not under any control so I wouldnt waste my money there and hope for luck..and yes lots of people have invested their savings in it and lost.

I must disagree with our second point "They're used to the government bailing them out if they don't have enough money or don't save any money. They're used to the courts bailing them out with favourable verdicts if they can't pay their bank loans"
Not fair to generalize, its not the case and let me tell you from personal experience..its not the case at all..the ones who get away with it are those who dont need the "favourable verdicts"
So its an unfair generalized comments...
"GCC nationals aren't used to losing money." I laughed at that one..who is "used" loosing money like that..LOL.

15 March, 2006 02:36  
Blogger secretdubai said...

BTW - your recent postings on the legal system are just incredible. More power to your pen.

Gracias!

If only you could have seen the first drafts before some freaked out friends got me to tone them down for safety reasons, quite considerably... ;)

15 March, 2006 02:50  
Blogger MuFi101 said...

iTs DuBai!! MaYB iTll puLL iTSeLF BaCK , wHT aBt tHe reAL eSTaTe maRKT?? CaNt THat pULL iT aLL baCK, caSH LosT i Mean

15 March, 2006 04:02  
Blogger Hot Lemon& Honey said...

if SD is not happy with the legal system here..its only natural to predict here veiws about India and Pakistan.
Dubaisceptic...its not all bad in Dubai, some of the things mentioned on this blog and few others are at times exaggerated...its actually a great city and one must remember its still developing..just give it time..
One more thing..
Dubai doesnt have to fit in the western standards to be considered a developed country..we have our take on lots of things in other cultures too...

15 March, 2006 04:48  
Blogger marwan said...

Just market forces at work. I recall some analyst at Nomura Bank last year saying it was long overdue a correction anyhow. And regardless of recent events, the bourse was highly inflated last year on the back of those record oil prices.

Every bubble bursts.

15 March, 2006 06:13  
Blogger John B. Chilton said...

In predictable, tag-team-wrestling fashion, The Emirates Economist taps Secret Dubai on the shoulder and takes it from here.

15 March, 2006 06:48  
Blogger qadi said...

They all went for the hot blonde(I prefer them dusky myself, but it's a metaphor), and as a result, they had to all go home and jack off instead.

Didn't anybody pay attention while watching "A Beautiful Mind"?

Then again, perhaps Jack Grubman has struck again!

15 March, 2006 07:11  
Blogger Harsha said...

Well, with the new property law coming out, the bubble is gonna blow up a lil more.

A lift in the property 'Boom'

15 March, 2006 09:45  
Blogger Harsha said...

And Balushi, your telling me , none of this happens in 'your country'? jus because 'western' countries dont hide it and 'your country' does, 'your country' can can get away with it.

Even if 'your country' admitted it, they'd blame it on the west for spoiling their culture. :o)

15 March, 2006 10:20  
Blogger John B. Chilton said...

Some of us need to pay a visit to a hotel somewhere in the snowy mountains to have our eyes opened.

15 March, 2006 11:53  
Blogger Harsha said...

hmm probably, wont be a loss really, wil continue they way its been , only the prices wont increase where as the 'designated areas' the prices would increase right about.. NOW!

15 March, 2006 12:30  
Blogger secretdubai said...

And, given that I'm posting from London, do you sleep at all?

Not much!

I tend to recharge at weekends, when I often sleep in until it is nearly dark on Fridays.

its only natural to predict here veiws about India and Pakistan.

I don't think there are many educated people - men or women, muslim or non-muslim - who have any sympathy or support for honour killings or the hulood(sp?) laws in Pakistan ;)

elated note, I've heard that a lot of the (grandiose?) development schemes like The World have been cancelled. What have you heard?

I heard it months ago, but was waiting for a newspaper to "make it safe", by making the topic public, before posting. One did, as you can see here, however this story was almost immediately pulled by the publishers after High-Level Complaints. But not before I managed to take an archive pdf!

15 March, 2006 14:54  
Blogger archer14 said...

I read somewhere online that the stock exchange in the ME is overvalued at $300 billion. This isn't any 'correction' of any sort if you'd believe even half of that amount is true.
Thanks for the pdf SD, but whats the real deal? Did shk Mo get tired of seeing the Zayed racecourse blocked everyday or is it because Iran is about to go bust?

15 March, 2006 16:48  
Blogger al-republican said...

SD:

It's HUDOOD.

15 March, 2006 17:16  
Blogger secretdubai said...

al-rep - thanks! My aged memory grows rustier by the day.

15 March, 2006 17:26  
Blogger SIN said...

SD,
Similar story with Palm Deira, and its disappearing act. Unfortunatley that story died an untimely death too.
Realistic expectations in this country is still a learning phrase, and shall take a while for some to catch on the depth of its meaning.

15 March, 2006 17:32  
Blogger Hot Lemon& Honey said...

Matis...at least write something about who you are in your blog so we know who is this curious person is...

16 March, 2006 03:11  

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